Spatiotemporal Trends of Monsoon Rainfall and Climate Variability in Bangladesh
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Abstract
Background: Monsoon rainfall is a crucial factor influencing climate, agriculture, and disaster risk in Bangladesh. Nevertheless, the most recent decades have also demonstrated some changes in the behavior of the monsoons, making the problems of floods and droughts more frequent and threatening to food security and livelihoods. Satellite observations and national records have made it possible to conduct long-term climate monitoring, hence providing rainfall and climate-related indices between the years 1994 and 2023. They enable us to examine spatial and time-varying monsoon rainfall patterns and variability in Bangladesh. Methods: The dataset combines a variety of data: rain and anomaly measurements by CHIRPS and APHRODITE, vegetation and temperature stress indices (VCI, TCI) using the data of the satellites of MODIS and TRMM, soil moisture index (SMCI), and vegetation health proxy (NDVI) obtained through the satellites of EM-DAT, BMD, and BWBS. The dry and wet extremes (SPI <-1 = drought; SPI > +1 = wet) were categorized into the standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To identify trends and variability, the spatiotemporal processes of rainfall totals, anomalies, and climate stress indices were analyzed. Results: It was found that the interannual variability of monsoon rainfall was high in the period 1994-2023, but there has been a reduction in the average variability since 2000. The years of drought were correlated with the SPI, which was less than -1, but there was a significant change in drought after 2005. Reduced rainfall amounts were linked to vegetation stress, as shown by reduced VCI (0.5739065) and also NDVI (0.39046). Quite the contrary, the years of high floods (1998, 2007, 2017) were characterized by high levels of rainfall. The average annual monsoon (1700 mm) has not varied, but the events of extreme weather (excess and dearth) have risen since 2000. Conclusion: The findings indicate that monsoon rainfall patterns in Bangladesh are becoming increasingly unstable, with far-reaching implications for the agricultural sector and disaster management. The indices data from satellite images have the potential to be particularly useful for early warning systems and climate adaptation responses, since they provide information on changes in rainfall, vegetation stress, and hydrologic extremes. To address these escalating problems, we must develop resilience through climate-sensitive agriculture, effective water resource management, and enhanced, more powerful surveillance systems.
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Publication Details
- Type of Publication:
- Conference Name: 1st International Conference on Geosciences for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (ICGSDG2025)
- Date of Conference: 14/11/2025 - 14/11/2025
- Venue: University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi
- Organizer: Faculty of Geosciences