Statistical Exploration of Public Health and Well-Being in Bangladesh: Projections from DHS Data Using Logistic Regression
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Abstract
Bangladesh has shown significant improvements in public health in the past two decades, specifically with respect to maternal mortality and its lowered fertility rates, which are aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG–3) of maternal and child health. Nevertheless, inequalities in health outcomes remain, particularly among rural women and women with low-income and educational attainment. Knowing the socio-demographic determinants of maternal healthcare services utilization is an additional important way to continue progress on these health outcomes and drive policy change. This study utilized data from the six different waves of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS: 2004, 2007, 2011, 2014, 2018, 2022). Logistic regression analysis was done using maternal education, wealth index, antenatal care, media access, residence, and place of delivery as variables which explain the probability of receiving care from medically trained providers (MTPs). The Prophet machine learning model was applied to predict future fertility trends, based on the long-term trend, seasonality, and anomaly or irregular variations while managing missing data. The findings show significant reductions in maternal mortality, falling from over 320 per 100,000 live births in 2004 to below 100 in 2022. Fertility declined from 3.5 to 2.0 children per woman in the same period, with projections suggesting a further decline to around 1.6 by 2030. Institutional deliveries rose from less than 20% in 2004 to more than 80% by 2022, reflecting major improvements in healthcare utilization. Logistic regression results indicate that women with secondary or higher education were more than twice as likely to be assisted by MTPs compared to those with no formal education. Wealth, antenatal care visits, and urban residence were also strong predictors of improved maternal healthcare access. The study highlights Bangladesh's rapid progress towards SDG-3 due to an increase in education, socio-economic empowerment and access to institutional care. At the same time, inequities remain and suggest the need for the continual and targeted interventions focused on marginalized groups. Future actions must entail, among other things, educational investments for women, adequate health infrastructure, and even community-centered efforts towards maternal and reproductive health to improve and sustain efforts to enhance maternal and reproductive health for all social groups and to create an advocate for such equitable access for all social groups.
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Publication Details
- Type of Publication:
- Conference Name: 7th International Conference on Integrated Sciences (ICIS) 2025
- Date of Conference: 25/10/2025 - 25/10/2025
- Venue: Eastern University Campus, Ashulia Model Town, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Organizer: Eastern University, Bangladesh