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Exploring 2024 Dengue Trends in Bangladesh through Time Series Analysis for Enhanced Health Sustainability

Students & Supervisors

Student Authors
K. M. Tahsin Kabir
Bachelor of Science in Computer Science & Engineering, FST
Abida Afrin
Bachelor of Science in Computer Science & Engineering, FST
Sunipun Seemanta
Bachelor of Science in Computer Science & Engineering, FST
Supervisors
Md. Mortuza Ahmmed
Associate Professor, Faculty, FST
Ayesha Siddiqua
Assistant Professor, Faculty, FST

Abstract

Background Dengue fever remains a significant public health issue in Bangladesh, with seasonal outbreaks contributing to high morbidity and mortality. In 2024, escalating case numbers have underscored the need for precise predictive tools to inform health interventions, aligning with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 to promote health and well-being. Objective This study aims to examine the temporal patterns and trends in dengue incidence across Bangladesh in 2024, utilizing time series analysis to generate actionable insights for sustainable health measures. Methods Data on dengue cases from January to September 2024 were sourced from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Statistical analysis was conducted using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling to assess dengue case progression and correlation with climate factors, including rainfall, temperature, and humidity. Results ARIMA modeling revealed seasonal peaks in dengue cases, with the highest incidence in August (β = 0.82, p < 0.01). Rainfall and temperature showed positive correlations with case counts, with coefficients of 0.63 (p < 0.05) and 0.47 (p < 0.05), respectively. The findings emphasize the influence of climate patterns on dengue dynamics, supporting the need for climate-responsive health strategies. Conclusion The results highlight the potential of time series analysis in predicting dengue trends and guiding targeted interventions. Sustainable health strategies, including early warning systems and vector control, are recommended to mitigate outbreak impacts. Further integration of climate data in health policies could strengthen disease preparedness in Bangladesh.

Keywords

Dengue Time Series Analysis ARIMA Sustainability Bangladesh.

Publication Details

  • Type of Publication: Conference 
  • Conference Name: International Conference on Emerging Technologies for Sustainable Development (ICETSD 2025)
  • Date of Conference: 22/02/2025 - 22/02/2025
  • Venue: Jashore University of Science and Technology (JUST), Bangladesh
  • Organizer: Jashore University of Science and Technology (JUST), Bangladesh
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