Drought Vulnerability in North Bengal: Climate Trends, Remote Sensing, and Agricultural Risk Assessment
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Abstract
"Background: Over the last twenty years, Bangladesh has seen a swift increase in urbanization, which has been Over the last twenty years, North Bengal has faced a rise in both the frequency and severity of droughts, which significantly threaten agricultural output and food security. This research evaluates the region's drought vulnerability by combining climate patterns, remote sensing data, and agricultural risk indicators from 2000 to 2023. Methodology: The dataset includes yearly climate and satellite-based indices such as average annual rainfall, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the percentage of land under drought stress, and projected rice yield reduction during the Aus season. Data were gathered from meteorological departments, remote sensing organizations, and government publications. A trend analysis was performed to assess changes in drought severity and its impact on agriculture over time. Results From 2000 to 2023, North Bengal's average annual rainfall decreased from 1800 mm to 1560 mm. SPI values fell from –0.2 to –1.5, indicating worsening drought conditions. VCI, TCI, and SMCI all consistently declined, indicating worsening vegetation health, increasing temperatures, and reduced soil moisture. By 2023, only 9% of the area was under drought stress, a decrease from a peak of 35% in 2010, thanks to enhanced early warning systems and response initiatives. Nonetheless, the cumulative effects of drought resulted in an average rice yield reduction of 2% in 2023, compared to 25% in 2010. NDVI also decreased from 0.40 to 0.42 in 2000 to 0.23 to 0.42 over the period, indicating long-term vegetation degradation. Conclusion: Despite recent advancements in drought monitoring and mitigation, North Bengal remains highly susceptible due to decreasing rainfall and extended dry periods. The combination of remote sensing tools with on-the-ground agricultural evaluations offers valuable insights into regional drought dynamics. Ongoing investment in drought-resistant agriculture, water conservation strategies, and adaptive cropping systems is crucial to protect livelihoods and ensure food security. "
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Publication Details
- Type of Publication:
- Conference Name: 1st International Conference for Achieving Geosciences for Sustainable Development Goals (ICGSDG2025)
- Date of Conference: 14/11/2025 - 14/11/2025
- Venue: University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi
- Organizer: Faculty of Geosciences